Chancellor Rishi Sunak is pinning his hopes on a supercharged boost to productivity to ensure future economic growth.
The Budget unveiled by Mr Sunak had more of the hallmarks of former Labour Chancellor Gordon Brown than one you would typically associate with a Conservative government.
Rather than austerity, Mr Sunak announced an extra £150billion of cash for schools, hospitals and the justice system, paid through a combination of better than expected economic growth and higher taxes.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) underscored this by revealing that the overall tax burden will be the highest since the post-war Labour government of 1945-51 and spending at its highest since the 1970s.
While the early recovery from the pandemic has been better than expected, the Government is clearly confident it can get a further positive reaction by pumping more money into the economy, stretching out Government spending and keeping a lid on inflation.
To encourage greater productivity, the Chancellor made a series of funding pledges in areas including R&D, technical education and skills training, building on the announcement in March of the Super Deduction capital allowances to boost investment rates and described by Mr Sunak as the “biggest tax cut ever for businesses”.
But I am concerned by the level of debt this Government is willing to shoulder, something that is being mirrored around the globe with other governments taking a similar approach.
With the focus on spending, there was little movement on personal tax and notably absent was any mention of Capital Gains Tax, Inheritance Tax or Pension Tax Relief.
CGT had already been absent from the March Budget despite talk of a possible alignment with income tax.
And, with no mention this time around, it is now not inconceivable that any further changes may now be delayed until after the next General Election, which may come sooner than expected if the Chancellor’s gamble on increased productivity pays off or if Prime Minister Boris Johnson wants to rush to the polls before trouble hits the fan.
For all Mr Sunak’s positivity in his Budget speech, the elephant in the room remains inflation.
We are currently in the final stages of managing the effects of rising inflation on our client portfolios and it is something that naturally gives clients cause for concern because of the impact it has on the value of their income and assets.
A single percentage increase in interest rates takes an average 10% off bond values.
While inflation is now only expected to hit 4% in 2022, below previous forecasts, this still represents the highest it will have been for the majority of the last 30 years.
Any worsening of this and Mr Sunak’s announcements such as the increase in Minimum Wage and the end to the public sector pay freeze will count for little if people find the value of their pay packet has barely increased.
Despite the boosterism of this Budget, the Government will undoubtedly be watching nervously where inflation goes over the coming weeks and months.
While MPs, particularly those in the so called ‘Red Wall’ seats that fell to the Tories in the 2019 election, know that austerity is definitely not a vote winner, they will also be only too aware that rising inflation isn’t either.
Helen named in prestigious UK guide
/0 Comments/in News /by EdwardLambWe are delighted to announce that Helen Brown has been included in a prestigious guide of the UK’s top financial advisers.
Helen, a Chartered Financial Planner at Phillip Bates & Co Financial Services, features in the newly published ‘VouchedFor’s 2022 Top Rated Financial Adviser Guide’, produced in conjunction with The Times newspaper.
Helen was one of the top performing advisers to make it into the list with 142 positive reviews from her clients. She has been included in the guide every year it has been published since 2014.
All advisers must undergo extensive checks prior to listing and be authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority.
Alex Whitson, Managing Director of VouchedFor, said in his foreword to the guide: “Uncertainty. It’s a word that has featured heavily in our past four guides. Whether due to Brexit, Covid or, now, the awful crisis in Ukraine.
“Unsurprisingly, such difficult times increase the value people place on good advice.”
Helen, who has been with Phillip Bates & Co Financial Services, for over 12 years, said: “I am delighted to have been included in the VouchedFor guide again this year. The guide gives people the confidence that they can trust the advice of the advisers who are included.
“As the guide says, this is even more important when we are living through such uncertain times.
“As ever, I am hugely grateful to all the clients who have given me reviews for the advice I have given them during the last 12 months.”
Helen works mainly with pensions and investments and has a long-standing specialism in “at retirement” work. This is a crucial part of financial planning as it involves arranging income for retirement in the most effective way for the individual.
Alan Mellor, Managing Director of Phillip Bates & Co Financial Services, said: “Helen is an outstanding Chartered Financial Planner who goes the extra mile for her clients. This is evident from the enormous number of reviews that she receives each year.
“She is part of a team that is committed to providing our clients with long-term, diversified plans that will enable them to achieve their financial objectives.”
Helen is one of three Chartered Financial Planners at Phillip Bates & Co Financial Services along with Alan Mellor and Margo Dorozik.
Ukraine: An Update
/0 Comments/in News /by EdwardLambWe continue to be shocked and concerned at the unfolding humanitarian crisis in Ukraine and the senseless loss of life.
I have had a few questions from clients asking how the conflict and the sanctions being imposed on the Russian regime may affect portfolios.
The reassuring answer I can give you is that our clients’ investments have virtually no exposure in financial terms.
Clearly there are wider economic implications the longer the conflict continues, something that we will track on your behalf and update accordingly at our regular reviews or in future editions of this newsletter.
Spring Statement highlights inflation concerns
/0 Comments/in News /by EdwardLambThe Chancellor’s Spring Statement did not make for easy listening last week.
Rishi Sunak’s announcements on the raising of the National Insurance threshold by £3,000 and the 5p a litre cut in fuel duty were welcome.
Likewise, the promise that he would reduce the basic rate of income tax from 20p to 19p in 2024 struck a positive note, albeit a rather political one.
However, the small amount of wriggle room that the Chancellor has for giveaways to help ease the growing cost of living crisis was overshadowed by the ever-deepening concerns surrounding the rising rate of inflation.
Currently standing at 6.2%, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is now forecasting that inflation will average 7.4% this year.
Alongside this, the OBR is suggesting that while the economy will grow by 3.8% this year, GDP will only grow by 1.8%, 2.1% and 1.8% over the following three years.
Further concern came with the news that debt service costs would rise to £83bn in the next fiscal year, the highest level on record.
When it comes to the issue of inflation, there is very little the Chancellor can do to resolve this directly.
We are in the midst of a global supply chain crisis the like of which we have not seen for decades.
There is an expectation in some quarters that after the 2008 global recession and the Covid-19 pandemic that governments will keep throwing money at the problems, but this is simply unsustainable.
The reality is that the various economic challenges, led by the rising inflationary pressures, mean that the financial markets will remain volatile in the short to medium term.
They are recalibrating and trying to work out what the economic headwinds mean for the value of businesses.
Volatility does, of course, also provide opportunities where stocks are mispriced.
While we continue to monitor what is going on in the UK and global financial markets, and advise you accordingly, our focus remains steadfast in ensuring that our clients’ portfolios have a longer term, diversified and balanced approach.
Jan to undertake Himalayas trek to raise money for Claire House
/0 Comments/in News /by EdwardLambThis month will see Jan Jones, one of our colleagues at Phillip Bates & Co, raising money for children’s hospice Claire House, by trekking in the Himalayas.
Jan, part of our accountancy team, will be travelling to Nepal to trek to Everest Base Camp, a trek of over 80 miles at high altitude and temperatures as low as -20oC.
In October, she will also be attempting to run the London Marathon as the second part of her attempt to raise a minimum of £2,500.
As many of you will know, Claire House is a local charity which helps seriously and terminally ill children live life to the full, creating wonderful memories and bringing back a sense of normality to family life.
Jan said: “Travelling to Everest Base Camp is one of my lifetime ambitions, as I have always wanted to walk in the Himalayas and see the world’s highest mountains. I am lucky to have the opportunity to achieve this while helping such a worthwhile cause.
“I am currently also working really hard in training for the Marathon. I started running last year managing 2 miles, so you can see that there was plenty of scope for improvement.
“I have discovered that 26 miles is a really long way! I am currently running 13 miles and I hope to build on this during the rest of the year.”
If you would like to sponsor Jan you can make a donation directly to Claire House, using her Just Giving page at the link.
Thank you so much for your support.
Ukraine: Diversified, global approach key at times of crisis
/0 Comments/in News /by EdwardLambWaking up to reports this morning of an assault on Ukraine, one’s first thoughts are with potential loss of life and liberty and, sadly, how this may affect the rest of the world.
There was an absolute inevitability that markets would fall sharply first thing. This is the result of uncertainty, more sellers than buyers, resulting in markets falling to find a new balance.
At the time of writing, the fall is in the region of 2%, but this could change as events unfold further.
The reality for clients is that markets go up and markets go down. We will see a resurgence and return of values, although the timescale of this is an unknown.
As we have seen during the last couple of years of the pandemic, previous financial crises and the Iraq wars, patience has been key.
Some other impacts specific to this issue are oil and gas prices rising further, although I would expect central governments to take some steps to limit this.
Gold is already spiking and as a store of value it is useful at times of crisis. Government bonds may benefit from equity valuation volatility.
Similarly, over the slightly longer term of the coming weeks or months, the increasing central government input of funds and liquidity has historically supported markets.
All this analysis reinforces why a sensible, well diversified, global approach to investments is best placed to cushion some of the immediate impacts of events in Ukraine.
We remain confident that this is the sensible and correct approach and do not think short-term reaction to events is necessary.
We will, of course, continue to track events closely as they unfold and will ensure to update clients as appropriate.
Important Changes to Trusts
/0 Comments/in Uncategorised /by EdwardLambYou may have seen some headlines recently about the Trust Registration Service (TRS), which was established by HMRC in 2017.
The TRS is a register of the beneficial ownership of trusts and new rules introduced on October 6, 2020, extended the scope of the trust register.
Trustee clients need to be aware of their obligation to register with the TRS by September 1, 2022.
The wider scope of the registration requirement has led to concerns that some trustees will be caught out.
Some arrangements, popular among parents and grandparents, such as bare trusts and bank accounts for minors, are not exempt from the new arrangements and must therefore be registered by the deadline.
All UK express trusts (usually created with a written deed) and some non-UK express trusts should be registered with HMRC, including non-taxable trusts, unless the trust is specially excluded due to its characteristics.
Trusts that need to be registered are: –
The team at Phillip Bates & Co Financial Services is already in contact with many clients affected by these changes, but please do get in touch if you think that you may be affected by these changes.
Balanced portfolios key to combating global economic winds
/0 Comments/in News /by EdwardLambIt seems that every way we look at the moment, uncertainty reigns.
At home, we have the uncertainty caused by rising energy costs, the latest rise in interest rates (now 0.5% following last week’s Bank of England decision) and the corresponding concerns over people’s cost of living.
Then, there is the continuing saga surrounding Prime Minister Boris Johnson and whether his latest survival strategy will be sufficient to enable him to keep the keys to 10 Downing Street.
Further afield, Russia continues to mass its troops on the border with Ukraine with the world watching closely to see if President Putin will decide to strike and how the western world will react if he does so.
Given so much uncertainty, clients often ask me why the FTSE 100 remains so resilient. The simple answer is that while the FTSE often grabs the headlines, it can mask the wider global economic picture. The reality is that the FTSE 100 is dominated by the ten or so biggest companies which represent around half of the index including the likes of BP, Unilever, Royal Dutch Shell and HSBC.
While we obviously keep a close eye on the FTSE 100, our focus is much more on the broader global financial markets which are significantly more balanced in terms of the stocks represented.
And while we, like the rest of the nation, monitor with interest what is happening in Westminster, whether Boris remains as PM or he is succeeded by someone else will have very little impact on the markets or our clients’ portfolios.
This contrasts with what is currently going on between Russia and Ukraine which, should the situation escalate, will have ramifications for the wider economy not least with energy supplies likely to be one of the dominant issues.
It is our job as Chartered Financial Planners to work closely with our clients to ensure that they have longer term, balanced portfolios in place which are best able to ride out the inevitable ups and downs of the financial markets.
This is not to say that we do not advise clients on shorter-term actions should they be necessary – something we have been busy with in recent weeks in the face of rising inflation and the resulting increase in interest rates, two upward trends we anticipate continuing during the rest of 2022.
But the greater focus is to ensure that our clients have the right plan for them which will evolve over an agreed period of time and give them the best possible chance of enjoying financial security into the longer term.
Season’s Greetings from all our team
/0 Comments/in News /by EdwardLambLooking back at my end of year message to clients a year ago, we were still to face the most testing period of the pandemic and the UK was just days away from leaving the European Union.
Despite these substantial challenges, 2021 has been a year when the markets have shown remarkable resilience and investments have held up.
Almost across the board, client portfolios have largely weathered some of the most turbulent economic times we can remember.
Of course, we are by no means out of the woods yet, especially with the latest Covid variant, Omicron, bringing some renewed restrictions as we approach the second anniversary of the outbreak of the global pandemic.
Overall though, there is unquestionably a more positive outlook than perhaps we could have hoped for this time last year.
There are even murmurings that the Chancellor Rishi Sunak would like to introduce some tax cuts at some point in the near future, although it is hard to see how this can be achieved just yet when so much work remains to be done re-balancing the books after the cost of navigating our way through the economic storms of the pandemic.
As we prepare to enter the New Year, the team at Phillip Bates & Co Financial Services will be continuing to monitor financial markets and trends, ensuring that we are able to advise of any measures that need to be taken to ensure our clients’ portfolios are fully protected and in the best possible position in both the short and longer term.
In recent newsletters, I have commented on concerns regarding rising inflation and the potential increase in interest rates. Thursday saw the Bank of England increase the rate to 0.25%, taking the view that action was now needed to combat inflationary pressures. We will continue to track the implications of this and further changes closely.
Despite the recent rise of Omicron, we have taken the decision to continue to work from the office. We know from our packed diaries that being able to meet with us again in person at our Neston office is something that many of you have appreciated. We will, of course, notify you should this position change over the coming weeks.
Finally, it remains for me, on behalf of all of our team, to wish you and your families a Happy Christmas and a Healthy and Prosperous New Year.
We look forward to meeting up again in 2022.
Our office will be closed between 24th December and 4th January.
Rishi gambles on future productivity
/0 Comments/in Uncategorised /by EdwardLambChancellor Rishi Sunak is pinning his hopes on a supercharged boost to productivity to ensure future economic growth.
The Budget unveiled by Mr Sunak had more of the hallmarks of former Labour Chancellor Gordon Brown than one you would typically associate with a Conservative government.
Rather than austerity, Mr Sunak announced an extra £150billion of cash for schools, hospitals and the justice system, paid through a combination of better than expected economic growth and higher taxes.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) underscored this by revealing that the overall tax burden will be the highest since the post-war Labour government of 1945-51 and spending at its highest since the 1970s.
While the early recovery from the pandemic has been better than expected, the Government is clearly confident it can get a further positive reaction by pumping more money into the economy, stretching out Government spending and keeping a lid on inflation.
To encourage greater productivity, the Chancellor made a series of funding pledges in areas including R&D, technical education and skills training, building on the announcement in March of the Super Deduction capital allowances to boost investment rates and described by Mr Sunak as the “biggest tax cut ever for businesses”.
But I am concerned by the level of debt this Government is willing to shoulder, something that is being mirrored around the globe with other governments taking a similar approach.
With the focus on spending, there was little movement on personal tax and notably absent was any mention of Capital Gains Tax, Inheritance Tax or Pension Tax Relief.
CGT had already been absent from the March Budget despite talk of a possible alignment with income tax.
And, with no mention this time around, it is now not inconceivable that any further changes may now be delayed until after the next General Election, which may come sooner than expected if the Chancellor’s gamble on increased productivity pays off or if Prime Minister Boris Johnson wants to rush to the polls before trouble hits the fan.
For all Mr Sunak’s positivity in his Budget speech, the elephant in the room remains inflation.
We are currently in the final stages of managing the effects of rising inflation on our client portfolios and it is something that naturally gives clients cause for concern because of the impact it has on the value of their income and assets.
A single percentage increase in interest rates takes an average 10% off bond values.
While inflation is now only expected to hit 4% in 2022, below previous forecasts, this still represents the highest it will have been for the majority of the last 30 years.
Any worsening of this and Mr Sunak’s announcements such as the increase in Minimum Wage and the end to the public sector pay freeze will count for little if people find the value of their pay packet has barely increased.
Despite the boosterism of this Budget, the Government will undoubtedly be watching nervously where inflation goes over the coming weeks and months.
While MPs, particularly those in the so called ‘Red Wall’ seats that fell to the Tories in the 2019 election, know that austerity is definitely not a vote winner, they will also be only too aware that rising inflation isn’t either.
Congratulations to Emma
/0 Comments/in Uncategorised /by EdwardLambWe are delighted to share the news with clients that our client administrator Emma Bowen is getting married to Pete Chegwin on Sunday, October 3rd at Thornton Manor in Wirral.
The couple have had to change their plans twice in the last couple of years due to the pandemic, so we are thrilled that their big day can finally go ahead.
As a consequence, our office will be closed on the morning of Monday, October 4th.
We wish Emma and Pete our very best wishes for a long and happy marriage.